Month-End November and 11-Month Market Recap
Silver was the star in November, up 19%, and 95% for the year so far, setting a new record high by a long shot, above $56 per ounce. Gold followed suit but silver seems to be the new leader (over gold and platinum) last month, last year and since 2020. Stocks barely made it back to near-zero monthly gains. First, stocks fell about 5% by November 20th but Thanksgiving week gave stock investors something to celebrate as the Dow and S&P indexes rallied by about 5% to close the month marginally positive. The tech-heavy NASDAQ, however, lost 1.5% in November.
As a group, precious metals beat the four stock indexes by +8.5% to -0.1% in November and by 77.7% vs. 15.5% year-to-date – a 5-to-1 advantage for metals over stocks so far in 2025.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down again in November and is down 8.3% for the year-to-date. What makes the performance of the precious metals so special is that crude oil is way down and the commodity index is up less than 10% in 2025, as measured by the CRB index.
With one month to go in 2025, it’s clear precious metals will continue to beat stocks and other commodities in 2025, as well as over the longer term, since 2020, 2000 or even 1970.
“The Third Time’s the Charm” with Gold and Silver Record Highs
Speaking of past gold bull markets – like the 1970s and 2000s – this current record-setting streak in 2025 is a case of “the third time’s the charm.” In two previous decade-long increases in precious metals, they peaked in a “bubble” rally, reaching unsustainable highs and then they quickly retreated.
This time, however, new record highs by gold and silver saw only a small and brief correction before they soared again – a clear case of a non-bubble market, based on solid fundamentals.
Here’s the data: In the past two decade-long bull markets, the biggest rise came in the last three months, followed by a two-month decline to more realistic levels – a “reversion to the mean.”
* First, from 1970 to 1980, gold grew 24-fold (from $35 to $850), and silver grew 39-fold (from $1.29 to $50), but the final surge in late 1979 and early January 1980 came too fast and too far.
* Then, from 2001 to 2011, gold rose 7-fold and ($255 to $1,895) and silver rose 12-fold (from $4 to $50) but then silver spiked in April 2011, followed by a gold spike from July to September 2011.
* Now, in the latest decade, starting in late 2015, silver and gold have both quadrupled from $14 to $56 (silver) and $1,050 to $4,200 (gold) but the gains have been more gradual, even in the last 90 days.
We may, indeed, see another precious metals price drop but the fact that both gold and (especially) silver have recovered strongly after their first record surge in mid-October is a very healthy sign.
As usual, we counsel you to “buy on the dips,” such as the brief dip from October 20 to October 31, since we see a case for $7,000 for gold next year and even a possible $10,000 by the end of the decade.
Silver rose 19% in November, mostly (+13%) during Thanksgiving week. Gold gained 3.5% during the week of Thanksgiving and +5.9% for the full month. Why is silver so strong? Basically, silver mine production has been decreasing over the last 10 years, forcing some above-ground supply out of hiding, including some coin melt (perish the thought!). Also, industrial demand has been constantly rising, due mostly to silver’s use in electric vehicles, AI components and in photovoltaic cells.