September 2025 – Week 1 Edition
August Was a Huge Month for Precious Metals
And September is Starting Out Even Stronger
August is often a down month for stocks and a flat month for gold but both have soared, with Silver up 10%, Gold and Platinum up about 6%. To the contrary, the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose only 1.6%, the broad S&P 500 rose 1.9% and the narrower (30-stock) Dow rose 3.2%. Year-to-date, Platinum is up 53%, with Silver up 41% and Gold up 33%, while the three major stock indexes average single-digit gains, up 9.3%.
Although gold didn’t match the faster rise in silver and platinum, gold pierced the $3,500 level over the weekend. That’s 100 times its fixed price back in 1970, before President Nixon closed the gold window and allowed currencies to trade freely, mostly down, in terms of gold. There should be huge Page 1 headlines on gold’s rise to $3,500 and silver to $40 but it’s hard to find any mainstream news on gold.
That silence in the news media is good news to contrarians and traditional gold bugs, as whenever the press puts gold’s bull market on Page 1, that could be a sign that most of gold’s willing buyers have bought the metal, leaving it vulnerable to a correction. That’s what happened after two rapid gold price surges in 1979-80 and 2011, but both of these record highs ($850 in 1980 and $1,900 in 2011) came after huge increases in just two months, unlike the current gain, which has been gradual over two years.
Safer, Slower Increases are More Reliable Than Huge, Quick Surges
Gold has been volatile in some past bull markets but the latest rise is slower and more sustainable.
Let’s take a short look at gold’s biggest bull markets in the last 50 years:
- From September 1976 to January 21, 1980, gold rose from $103 to $850 (+725% in 3.4 years).
- From mid-2001 to September 6, 2011, gold rose from $255 to $1,905 (+647% in 10 years).
- Since late 2015, gold has already risen from $1,055 to $3525 (+234% in nearly 10 years).
Taking these three major bull markets, in order:
(1) Gold fell almost 50% in 1975 and 1976 before taking off. As gold rose from the fixed $35 level in 1970 to $195 by the end of 1974, Americans were still forbidden from buying or owning gold bullion. In the Land of the Free, Americans were one of the few nations not allowed to own gold. Even though it multiplied nearly 10-fold ($20 to $195) in 41 years as soon as Americans were given legal access to it, gold fell by nearly 50%, shaking out any weak hands before its rapid 8-fold run from $103 to $850 per ounce.
(2) In the summer of 2011, during the U.S. debt downgrade and deficit ceiling debates in Congress, gold rose 29% in barely two months. During the same late summer surge in gold, the S&P 500 fell by almost 19% in three months. Like the 1979-80 gold surge, this last rapid rise was a case of “too far, too fast.”
(3) The fastest recent rise in gold began in late 2023, after the Hamas invasion of Israel and the quick reprisal against Gaza. This sent gold soaring, from $1,819 just before the Hamas strike to over $3,500 now.
As we can see from any chart, gold’s rise was more gradual and stocks were also rising at the same time. Since 2023, stocks have kept rising but at a slower pace than gold, silver and platinum since 2020 or 2022, as our weekly chart (below) shows. Gold has outpaced stocks by a wide margin in all comparisons.
Now, what might we see in the final months of 2025? Could gold approach $4,000 or silver reach $50?
Americans didn’t buy much gold from 2022 to 2024, when central bankers and other nations were loading up on gold. From late 2022 until the start of 2025, North American demand for gold ETFs was down for over two full years. GLD (the leading gold bullion ETF) suffered over $5 billion in outflows at that time. This year, however, Americans have wised up, buying nearly $10 billion of GLD, but mostly in the first quarter and they’ve bought even more physical gold, which I recommend.
Looking at the calendar, September is historically the worst month for stocks, while September has been among gold’s strongest months. It often marks a turnaround or rally, partly due to global jewelry fabricators preparing their ornate products for the upcoming six-month holiday gift-giving season in the most populous and gold-friendly nations on earth. This year, that holiday period begins with Diwali in India, falling on October 20-22, then Christmas in America and Europe, followed by the Chinese New Year starting February 6, 2026, Valentine’s Day on February 14 and Ramadan, beginning February 28.
This implies another solid September and – as we’ve seen – September has started with a BANG for gold. There are likely more increases coming by year-end, so be sure to load up on coins and metals ASAP! We have also found that as more people buy into the gold market, over time, many new buyers also purchase rare coins, which have a double-play potential based on rarity and demand, along with the increasing price of physical gold.
Over the Labor Day weekend, precious metals soared. While stock markets were closed, the global commodity markets were open on Monday. Since Friday’s market close, gold gained $91 (+2.6%) in three days, to $3,565; silver gained $1.56 (+3.9%) to $41.76 and platinum gained $65 (+4.8%) to $1,431. Meanwhile, the stock market opened sharply down on Tuesday, the first trading day in September.
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